01Zils researchRecorded experiments · published evidence
Tuned open models can compete.
We train open models for a specific job, then test them on examples they haven’t trained on. Here’s what improved, what didn’t, and how we measured it.
Tuned open model vs official hosted TypeSafe JEV 1.13.0
Before task-specific training: 57.8%. Same 500 test conversations.
The open JevK5 4B model with a support adapter surpassed official JEV on recorded next actions. This does not measure whether the whole customer issue was resolved.
Tuned open model vs official hosted TypeSafe JEV 1.13.0
Before chess training: 42.97%. Chess-rules software: 100%.
A separate JevK5 4B chess adapter surpassed official JEV on this restricted task. It does not establish full-game chess strength or an advantage over a rules engine.
59.7 ms vs 178.4 ms for the JevK5 4B adapter on B300
2B used 54% less CUDA memory; 9B showed no clear accuracy gain.
This follow-up compares local open models, not hosted TypeSafe JEV. H2O and 2B accuracy differences from the best 4B adapter remain inconclusive on two reused 500-case cohorts. New checkpoints have not been validated on miner hardware.
The unchanged published Kev checkpoint is the baseline.
This earlier run did not establish an improvement. Its tasks, models, and scoring differ from the studies above.
Support training and the JEV comparison reuse the same trained model and 500 test cases. They are two comparisons of one experiment, not independent replications.
Approach
What we’re training.
A model that assigns probabilities to a set of possible answers. Each experiment tests a specific decision, such as which action to take next.
1
Start with a base model.
The support, flight, and chess studies (5–7 October 2026) used the published JevK5 4B weights, the base at the time. In each study, that unchanged model is the baseline for measuring what training adds. JevK5 was retired on 17 October 2026; customer adapters now train on d3-mini 4.5B.
2
Teach one task with an adapter.
A LoRA adapter is a small set of learned weights added to the model. The base weights stay frozen while the adapter learns from examples for that task.
3
Test on separate examples.
Compare models on the same held-out cases. Measure correctness, probability quality, and simple alternatives. Test data does not select the adapter.
Model names, comparison controls, and deployment status
Before and after training
Before training, each study used the published JevK5 4B model, since retired. After training, it included an adapter learned from examples for that task. The support, flight, and chess studies each use a separate adapter.
TypeSafe JEV
The external hosted comparator is JEV 1.13.0. It receives the same test inputs and choices. The support comparison reuses recorded Zils predictions and makes fresh JEV API calls; their timing measurements are not comparable.
Earlier Kev 0.8B
A different model line, used in the archived JevBench comparison. Its percentages and probability-error scores should not be mixed with the newer studies.
Research and deployment
The research adapters shown here have not been deployed. A benchmark result is evidence about that experiment; it is not a measurement of the shared playground or a guarantee for a customer-trained model.
Each study records its own split, selection rule, and evaluation protocol. The support study selects a checkpoint on development data; the flight study calibrates probabilities on a later, separate month; the chess study reserves calibration data but does not use it. A held-out test prevents direct training leakage, but cannot rule out public-data exposure during base-model pretraining.
Completed comparison · 6 October 2026 · 500 ABCD test conversations
Models trained for customer support.
Given a customer conversation, its previous actions, and a workflow guide, choose the next action from 30 options. ABCD is a public dataset of support role-play conversations; the recorded action is the test answer.
Our trained model matched that answer 79.2% of the time, compared with 70.6% for TypeSafe JEV 1.13.0. Both received the same inputs, instructions, and choices.
What the comparison holds fixed
The Zils adapter trained on 1,024 separate conversations and was selected on a different development set. Its weights were frozen before the final test cases were prepared.
We then called TypeSafe’s hosted JEV API on those same test inputs. The Zils scores reuse verified predictions from the completed training study. No test answers were sent to either model, and no model or prompt was tuned during this comparison.
Our trained model got 72 cases right that JEV missed. JEV got 29 right that our trained model missed.
One test. 500 support decisions.Trained with Zils compared with TypeSafe JEV
Each mark is one conversation. Grouped by outcome.
Both correct
324
Only trained model correct
72
Only JEV correct
29
Both incorrect
75
43 more correct decisionsOn this test, with the same inputs and choices.
The 95% interval for the accuracy advantage is +4.8 to +12.2 percentage points, from 2,000 paired resamples of test conversations. This measures uncertainty across these conversations, not across different training runs.
JEV was more accurate among its smaller set of answers assigned at least 90% probability. Our model assigned that probability to more cases, but made more mistakes within them. These groups contain different cases and have different coverage.
Probability of the chosen action ≥90%. TypeSafe’s separate confidence field is not used.
Model
Cases / 500
Mistakes
Accuracy in group
TypeSafe JEV 1.13
176
8
95.5%
Trained with Zils
381
44
88.5%
All scores, API checks, and method
All 500 cases included. Higher accuracy and macro F1 are better; lower Brier probability error is better.
Model
Accuracy
Macro F1
Brier error
TypeSafe JEV 1.13
70.6%
0.6108
0.403536
Trained with Zils
79.2%
0.7583
0.337545
Model foundation. The trained model in this comparison combined the published JevK5 4B weights, the base at the time (retired 17 October 2026), with our ABCD-specific adapter.
Identical evidence. Each model received the prior conversation, completed actions and results, compact workflow catalog, and the same ordered choices. Current answers, future turns, and labeled workflow metadata were excluded. Each case comes from a distinct conversation.
Preserved API responses. All 500 JEV calls returned answers. 47 probability vectors summed to 0.99; they were normalized for Brier scoring. One returned choice differed from its probability ranking. Accuracy uses the returned choice; using the highest-probability option instead gives 70.8%. No cases were dropped or re-queried.
Usage and timing. JEV reported 1,595,919 input tokens, an estimated $0.06703 at the provider’s listed rate. API response time includes networking; the earlier Zils timings measure local GPU inference. They do not establish a comparable speed advantage.
This measures recorded next-action agreement in public role-play conversations. It does not establish complete conversation success or a general model ranking. One training recipe and seed were used; public-data pretraining overlap cannot be excluded. The prompt was developed for Zils and was not separately optimized for JEV. The research adapter has not been deployed.
After training on 1,024 separate conversations, Zils’ accuracy rose from 57.8% to 79.2% on the untouched test set. The task was to choose the next recorded support action from all 30 tool choices.
Training protocol, checkpoint selection, and full evaluation
Learn, select, then test.
1
Train · 1,024 conversations
One fixed recipe. Three saved checkpoints.
2
Select · 500 development conversations
Choose the strongest qualifying checkpoint.
3
Test · 500 untouched conversations
Freeze the adapter, then compare both models on identical cases.
The adapter corrected 128 baseline mistakes and introduced 21 new ones. Total mistakes fell from 211 to 104.
Correct next actionsSame 500 test conversations
Before training
57.8%
No ABCD-specific training289 / 500 correct
After training
79.2%
Trained on 1,024 separate conversations396 / 500 correct
0%100%
+21.4 percentage points vs before training
Accuracy gain
+21.4 points
On the final test set
Fewer mistakes
51%
Compared with before training
Lower probability error
45.3%
Relative decrease in multiclass Brier score
The 95% interval for the accuracy gain is +16.8 to +25.8 percentage points, from 2,000 paired resamples of test conversations. The trained adapter also beat both simple frequency baselines.
Final scores and checkpoint selection
Final test only. Same 500 conversations. Higher accuracy and macro F1 are better; lower Brier error is better.
Model
Accuracy
Macro F1
Brier error
Before training
57.8%
0.4964
0.616934
After training
79.2%
0.7583
0.337545
Previous-action frequency
44.8%
0.1930
0.707464
Training-action frequency
19.8%
0.0110
0.926030
Development results used for selection. These are a separate set of 500 conversations, not the final test above.
Training examples
Accuracy
Brier error
Before training
54.0%
0.656521
256
63.0%
0.498994
512
74.2%
0.381126
1,024
77.4%
0.366084
What the model sees. The conversation so far, previously completed tool calls and their results, and a compact catalog of workflow sequences. The current answer, future turns, and labeled workflow metadata are excluded. Each case comes from a distinct conversation in its official split.
One fixed recipe. JevK5 4B with an attention-only rank-16 LoRA adapter, one epoch, learning rate 0.00001, and seed 553. The base weights stayed frozen. Training used groups of 15 or 16 answer choices; every evaluation offered all 30 through JevK5’s native selection process. Published temperatures stayed at 1.22 and 0.93; no confidence recalibration was fitted.
Selection before testing. A checkpoint needed at least 59% development accuracy, lower Brier error, and no macro-F1 regression. Highest accuracy won among qualifying checkpoints. All three qualified; the 1,024-example checkpoint was frozen before the final test.
How improvement is measured. The +21.4-point gain is the difference in accuracy. The 51% figure is the relative reduction in mistakes. The 45.3% probability improvement is the relative reduction in multiclass Brier error, the summed squared difference between predicted probabilities and the recorded answer.
Inspect recorded decisions: three corrections and one new mistake
ABCD support workflows · Recorded test examples
What changed in individual decisions.
Three mistakes the adapter corrected and one it introduced in the 500-conversation test. These examples were selected after evaluation, not sampled to represent overall performance. The excerpts are paraphrased; both models saw the same full conversation, workflow catalog, and all 30 possible actions.
Verify identity before proceeding
The agent asks for account and order IDs to verify the customer’s identity. The customer provides both.
Before training
Issue a promo code
Did not match the recorded action
After training
Verify identity
Matched the recorded action
Collect the return address
The agent approves a return and asks for the address needed for a shipping label. The customer provides it.
Before training
Update the order
Did not match the recorded action
After training
Enter the address details
Matched the recorded action
Find the customer’s account
A customer complains about an out-of-stock jacket. The agent offers to look up their account and collects their name.
Before training
Record the complaint reason
Did not match the recorded action
After training
Look up the account
Matched the recorded action
A mistake training introduced
The shopping cart still fails after logging out and back in. The agent asks the customer to refresh the page and try adding the item again.
Before training, Zils chose try again, matching the recorded action. After training, it chose provide instructions. This was one of the 21 new mistakes it introduced, alongside 128 corrected mistakes.
Examples selected to explain the decisions. The 79.2% result above includes all 500 test cases. This measures action selection, not tool execution or a complete customer conversation.
Training improved next-action prediction on ABCD’s public support role-play conversations. It does not measure complete conversation success, flight prediction, or customer readiness. This used an isolated research training runner; the full customer-facing training service was not evaluated.
Confidence still runs high: 44 of 381 predictions made with at least 90% confidence were wrong. One recipe and one training seed were tested. Public-data exposure during base-model pretraining cannot be ruled out. The adapter has not been deployed.
Choose an immediate checkmate from a supplied list of legal checking moves. A correct answer ends the game in one move; this does not test playing a whole game.
A fresh chess adapter selected a checkmating move in 260 of 512 held-out positions. Accuracy improved by +7.81 percentage points over the model before training and +7.23 over TypeSafe JEV.
Checkmate accuracySame 512 test positions · Higher is better
After training260 / 512 correct · Fresh adapter · 2,048 training positions50.78%
TypeSafe JEV 1.13.0223 / 512 correct · Regular JEV · same test inputs43.55%
Before training220 / 512 correct · No chess-specific adapter42.97%
0%100%
All legal checking moves were offered. Every move that immediately checkmates received credit.
This measures one-move choices among legal checks. Deterministic chess software solves 100% of these positions; the study tests specialization on a new task. One training seed, one recipe, no deployment.
Flights
Completed experiment · 5 October 2026 UTC
Flight risk: historical rates still scored best.
Estimate whether a flight will arrive at least 15 minutes late, using scheduled information only. On 1,024 later test flights, the trained adapter reduced probability error by 6.5% versus the base. A simple historical-rate baseline still had the best measured score.
Learn from the past. Test on later flights.
Public US Bureau of Transportation Statistics records, departing JFK, LGA, and EWR. The decision: will a completed flight arrive at least 15 minutes late?
January 2025
Train the adapter
3,072 flights
February 2025
Adjust confidence scores
512 flights
March 2025
Test both models
1,024 flights
Only scheduled information entered the model: date, airline, route, times, duration, and distance. Actual delays and arrival times supplied the answers for training and scoring, never the prediction inputs.
Probability errorBrier score · Lower is better
Before trainingNo flight-specific training0.1641
After trainingTrained on January flights0.1534
Historical delay ratesSimple baseline from the same training data0.1513
00.20
Both models had their confidence scores adjusted on separate February data. All three were tested on the same March flights.
What training improved
The adapter produced better probability estimates and ranked delay risk more accurately. Its risk-ranking score (ROC-AUC) rose from 0.516 to 0.640. The measured probability-error improvement over the base was supported by a 95% interval that stayed above zero.
Where it fell short
Historical rates scored slightly better; the difference was uncertain. The experiment required the adapter to beat both references. It did not meet that bar, and no model was deployed from this run.
Why 80.37% accuracy is not the headline
Most flights were not late. At a 50% probability cutoff, the adapter predicted “not late” for every flight and flagged none of the 201 late arrivals. The improvement was in its risk estimates, not in useful delay alerts at that threshold. An alert threshold needs its own validation.
All scores, methodology, and limitations
Same 1,024 test flights. Lower Brier error is better; higher ROC-AUC is better.
Model
Brier error
Accuracy
ROC-AUC
Before training, calibrated
0.164076
80.18%
0.5165
After training, calibrated
0.153357
80.37%
0.6401
Historical delay rates
0.151347
80.37%
0.6503
Before training, raw
0.170116
80.18%
0.5165
After training, raw
0.156231
80.37%
0.6401
What the percentage means. The 6.5% headline is the relative decrease in binary Brier error: (base error − adapter error) ÷ base error. It is not a percentage-point increase in accuracy. Binary Brier is the average squared difference between the predicted chance of a late arrival and what happened.
A fair comparison. Both models had their confidence adjusted independently using February data only. Raw temperatures were 1.22 for the base and 1.0 for the adapter; fitted temperatures were 0.933033 and 0.870551. Historical rates used the same January sample, grouped by airline, origin, and four-hour departure window, with smoothing toward the overall rate.
Uncertainty. We resampled whole test dates 2,000 times. The 95% interval for adapter Brier improvement versus the base was [+0.006059, +0.015117]. Versus historical rates it was [-0.005960, +0.002194], crossing zero. Positive values favor the adapter.
One fixed training recipe. JevK5 4B, one epoch, rank-16 LoRA, seed 553. The base weights stayed frozen. Training took 27.5 minutes on an RTX 4090. Median forward calls took 49.7 ms for the base and 64.7 ms for the adapter, excluding tokenization, loading, and API overhead. These are recorded timings, not a serving guarantee.
Scope and limits. One recipe, three airports, one season, and 31 test dates. Canceled and diverted flights were excluded, so this does not cover all scheduled flights. There were no live weather, congestion, or inbound-aircraft feeds. Public records may have appeared in base-model pretraining. Historical schedules are not a timestamped record of what was known at booking time. This result does not establish general improvement or customer readiness.
Base tier
Base tier · status as of 19 October 2026
A competition for the base model itself.
Customer adapters train on a pinned base model. Since 17 October 2026 that base is d3-mini 4.5B (below); before that it was H2O Lightning 4B v1.2.3. The base tier is the competition that decides when that base changes. Miners submit a full-weight replacement for the pinned base of a text profile. Validators score it on a sealed holdout against the incumbent, and a candidate is promoted only if it passes every step below.
How a candidate base is scored and promoted
Step
Rule
Sealed score
Validators score the submitted weights on a sealed holdout, against the incumbent.
Eligibility
Skill is positive, accuracy is not below the incumbent’s, and Brier improves by at least 0.01 with a paired-bootstrap 95% lower bound above zero.
King of the hill
Only kings are paid. A winner becomes king when the owner promotes it. The base-tier share splits equally over the last five distinct kings still registered.
No king
An empty track’s share is burned. The vendor base (stock d3-mini today) has no miner, so there is no king yet.
Confirmation
The best eligible candidate is re-scored on a second, disjoint sealed draw at least 12 hours later and must stay eligible.
Regression suite
Before promotion, a fixed suite of reference adapter jobs is retrained on the incumbent and on the candidate. The candidate must be no worse than 0.005 Brier on every job and better on at least one.
Two channels
Base channels
Channel
Advances
Who gets it
latest
Advances on each confirmed winner.
Opt-in, per job.
stable
Advances at most quarterly, to a base that held latest through a full window without rollback.
The default for new customer jobs.
New customer jobs default to stable; latest is opt-in per job. Existing releases keep serving on their base.
Status, 19 October 2026. Open to anyone registered on testnet subnet 579: upload to Hugging Face, then commit on chain. Every validator reads the commitments and scores them. Customer-job admission stays off until miner terms and intake are ready. Mainnet is not live.
Round one’s sealed holdout has 1,458 teacher-authored cases in six families. The incumbent, stock H2O Lightning 4B v1.2.3, scores Brier 0.184 and 87.7% accuracy on it. d3-mini’s confirmation draw did not confirm a winner, but d3-mini became the base by decision on 17 October (see below), so both channels now point at it and stock d3-mini is the incumbent for round two.
Want to compete? Read the miner guide in the Zils docs. For every attempt so far, in order, see the miners page; for how the bases have changed, see bases.
d3-mini evidence
d3-mini · recorded 16–17 October 2026 · one rented B300
d3-mini, tested as a base.
Under the base tier’s own rules, stock d3-mini was not promotable. On the night of 16–17 October 2026, one rented B300 ran for 6.75 hours. The first sealed draw cleared, but the confirmation draw did not confirm a winner (Brier 0.1790 for d3-mini against 0.1794 for H2O, an improvement of 0.0004 where the rule needs at least 0.01 with a positive lower bound). The adapter regression suite passed, on one reference job where the rule asks for three or four. Under those rules d3-mini was not promoted; it became the base by decision instead (below). No round-two decision was frozen under the exam.
d3-mini profile
Property
Value
Profile
d3-mini-4.5b-v1
Vendor model
vllm-sr/d3-mini · 4.54B parameters · Apache-2.0
Backbone
Qwen3.5-4B (the same as H2O and Imajev), plus a 0.33B vision tower
Inputs
Text, up to four images, and one video
Answers
Yes/no, choice (up to 255 outcomes), and score
Pinned by Zils
A byte-identical mirror, zils-ai/d3-mini-4.5b-v1, and a 4,096-token cap with no truncation
Merged on 16–17 October 2026 in the subnet and platform repositories: the profile, runtime, node qualification, images and video, platform routing, a latest channel that can point at d3-mini, and cross-profile upgrades. Through the training API, an existing task on H2O can be upgraded to a d3-mini adapter by setting "base_change": true in the acceptance policy; the frozen previous release is scored on its own base and compared on the same test data. The dashboard does not offer this yet.
What we measured
Decision, 17 October 2026. Zils is adopting d3-mini as its base anyway, by the owner’s decision and recorded as an override of the promotion rule rather than a win under it. The grounds are capability: adapters trained on d3-mini beat adapters trained on H2O on the reference job and on ABCD, and d3-mini takes images and video, which H2O does not serve. Since the afternoon of 17 October 2026 both stable and latest name d3-mini, so new jobs train on it (4,096-token inputs, up to four images). Existing H2O jobs and releases keep their frozen profile and move only through base_change upgrade jobs; JevK5 is retired; H2O and Imajev retire once nothing served depends on them.
d3-mini compared with the H2O incumbent, 16–17 October 2026
Measure
H2O Lightning 4B v1.2.3
d3-mini
Reading
Stock model, first draw (round-one sealed holdout), validator decision rule
Brier 0.184 · 87.7% accuracy
Brier 0.142 · 89.8% accuracy
Eligible. Reproduced exactly on the node through the validator path, so real for that set
Stock model, confirmation draw (second, disjoint, teacher-authored sealed set: 291 calibration and 1,156 test cases, scored 12 hours later)
Brier 0.1794 · 88.5% accuracy
Brier 0.1790 · 88.6% accuracy
No winner confirmed: improvement 0.0004, paired-bootstrap 95% interval −0.022 to +0.023; the rule needs at least 0.01 with a positive lower bound
Families won (of six), first draw and confirmation draw
0 and 3
6 and 3
The first-draw result did not carry over; the second split three and three, narrowly. H2O improved between draws (0.184 to 0.179) while d3-mini fell (0.142 to 0.179), so the second set is not simply harder
Adapter regression suite, one reference job (ABCD; the rule asks for three or four): calibrated Brier and accuracy
Brier 0.2801 · 81.6%
Brier 0.2515 · 84.0%
Passed, on one job
Upgrading an existing H2O task to a d3-mini adapter with base_change: Brier
0.1805 (previous H2O release)
0.1667 (d3-mini candidate)
Improvement 0.0138 against a 0.01 threshold
Adapter on the 500-case ABCD test cohort (frozen production recipe, 4,096 training examples, two seeds)
83.0%
83.4%
A tie: the interval includes zero
Adapter on the historical ABCD cohort
83.6%
86.6%
d3-mini ahead; interval +0.6 to +5.4 points
Exam prompt length, median input tokens
528
568
d3-mini prompts are about 40 tokens longer
A feature probe answered yes/no, score, multi-question, JSON-state, one-, two- and four-image, and short-video requests correctly. It refused a 13,414-token state at the runtime’s 8,192-token limit.
The merged d3-mini code ran end to end on a GPU for the first time (qualification parity 5.3e-7). A d3-mini training job on the ABCD dataset was accepted, at 84.0% test accuracy and Brier 0.244 against 48.0% for stock d3-mini, and its release answered a text call and a one-image call.
Limits. One card, one night. Nothing above 4,096 tokens was tested. The holdouts are teacher-authored, not customer data. Passing the sealed-holdout decision rule makes a candidate eligible; it does not promote it.
Earlier research
Earlier research · Kev 0.8B
Previous experiments, preserved.
This earlier experiment fine-tuned Kev 0.8B and tested it on the public JevBench items. Accuracy tied the unchanged checkpoint, while probability quality worsened. Its model, tasks, and scoring rules differ from the studies above. Checkpoint and dataset identities are preserved in the method below.
Earlier benchmark
Earlier JevBench comparison
Accuracy tied; confidence quality regressed.
Zils candidate accuracy
63.64%
147 of 231 public items correct
Probability error (Brier)
0.463608
Lower is better. Compare within this study.
Confident mistakes
8
Wrong at ≥90% confidence.
Zils corrected 6 reference-model errors and introduced 6. No general improvement is established.
JevBench public comparison
231 released public items: 48 easy, 72 original, 111 hard
Recorded Zils and published Kev results on the same public items
Metric
Zils candidateExperimental checkpoint
Published Kev 0.8BComparison baseline
AccuracyHigher is better
63.64%
63.64%
Correct answersSame public items
147 / 231
147 / 231
Brier lossLower is better
0.463608
0.451648
Calibration error (ECE)Lower is better
0.113615
0.044050
Confident mistakesWrong at ≥90% confidence
8
3
Median latencyLocalhost HTTP
42.08 ms
52.78 ms
p95 latencyLocalhost HTTP
205.26 ms
209.36 ms
Valid probability outputs
100.00%
100.00%
Brier loss measures probability error; ECE measures the gap between confidence and observed accuracy. Lower is better for both. Timing is one serial pass per model; Kev then Fez, on NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090, via localhost HTTP. This does not establish a reliable speedup or production SLA.
Accuracy by difficulty
Correct and total counts, with accuracy, for each public subset
Subset
Zils
Kev baseline
easy
48 / 48100.00%
48 / 48100.00%
original
57 / 7279.17%
58 / 7280.56%
hard
42 / 11137.84%
41 / 11136.94%
Data mode
recorded_experiment
Completed, recorded experiment
Verified at
Evidence time; not page-refresh time
Hardware / precision
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090
FP32. Same runtime for both models.
Method, checkpoint identities & limitations
This earlier experiment fine-tuned a published Kev 0.8B checkpoint built on Qwen3.5-0.8B-Base. The unchanged published checkpoint is the baseline in this comparison.
No official JevBench rank or composite score is available: private and sealed tests were not run. Hosted cost was not measured. Other experiment suites are documented separately and cannot form an improvement line with this comparison.
Being correct and knowing how likely you are to be correct are different properties. We report both.
Accuracy
The fraction of decisions that match the test answer. On the support test, 396 / 500 = 79.2%. It measures the recorded next action, not the success of an entire conversation.
Percentage points vs fewer mistakes
79.2% − 70.6% = an 8.6-point accuracy gain. The same result is 43 fewer errors out of JEV’s 147, or 29.3% fewer mistakes. These describe the same comparison using different denominators.
Confidence and coverage
Confidence here is the probability assigned to the chosen answer. Coverage is the share of cases above a probability threshold. High accuracy on a small confident subset does not mean high accuracy on all cases.
Calibration
Among predictions assigned about 90% probability, roughly 90% should be correct. A model can improve accuracy while remaining overconfident. ECE summarizes the gap between confidence and accuracy across bins.
Technical reference: Brier, F1, ROC-AUC, NLL, and intervals
Brier score · lower is better
Mean squared probability error. For binary flight outcomes: mean((p − y)²), where y is 0 or 1. For multiclass decisions, sum the squared errors across choices before averaging. Different formulations and tasks have different scales; compare within a study.
Macro F1 · higher is better
F1 balances precision and recall for an answer category. Macro F1 averages the category scores equally, so frequent answers do not dominate the result. The support calculation uses categories with support in the test set.
ROC-AUC · higher is better
Measures how well scores rank positive cases above negative ones across thresholds. In the flight study, it describes delay-risk ranking. It does not show that the probabilities are calibrated or that a chosen alert threshold works.
Negative log likelihood · lower is better
Penalizes low probability on a correct answer. The chess study uses −log(total probability on all checkmating moves), so positions with multiple valid moves receive appropriate credit.
Paired 95% bootstrap intervals
Resample the test units and recalculate the difference while keeping models paired on the same cases. Support uses conversations, chess uses games, and flight uses whole dates. These intervals estimate test-sample uncertainty; they do not measure variation across training seeds or future domains.
Reproducibility
Protocols, reports, result files, prediction records where published, and hashes let readers inspect the evidence. They do not imply every checkpoint is distributed or every run can be reproduced from the repository alone. Check each study’s artifact and release limits.
All results on this page are recorded experiments. The study reports define their scope, artifacts, and reproduction limits.